Climate Shocks and Adaptation Strategies
The devastating impacts of climate change have been acutely felt in the Eastern Gangetic Plains of Nepal, India, and Bangladesh in 2024. In Nepal, a country experiencing erratic and intense weather patterns, several incidents of flash floods and landslides were reported during the monsoon season leading to over 200 deaths. A similar situation unfolded in Bangladesh and Northeastern with monsoon-related flash floods affecting millions of people, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Such incidents serve as a stark reminder that extreme events are likely to become more frequent and intense in the future. The EGP region already faces numerous challenges and is home to some of the most vulnerable and marginalized communities. Agriculture-dependent communities are at high risk, with limited opportunities to adapt to the changing climate thereby increasing food insecurity in the region. Among these farmers, women particularly are vulnerable to climate-related shocks due to their limited access to resources for building resilience and adapting to such events. As part of the Rupantar project, a large-scale baseline study was conducted to examine the intrahousehold differences in climate shocks experienced by smallholder farmers (main decision maker and spouse) and the adaptation strategies employed in response these shocks across 351 households.
The findings reveal country-specific trends in the climate shocks reported by the surveyed households. In India, 85% of farmers experienced erratic rainfall, followed by hailstorm (28%) and floods (19%). The study locations in Cooch Behar district, which fall within a sub-tropical humid climate, receive annual rainfall ranging from 2800 to 3000 mm, mostly during the summer monsoon. However, winter rain has been below normal in recent years, leading to occasional monsoon flooding, and frequent hailstorms in March and April, affecting summer crops such as rice and maize. In Nepal, 49% of respondents reported experiencing floods, followed by drought (46%) and erratic rainfall (42%). In Bangladesh, respondents commonly experienced floods (57%), erratic rainfall (30%) and pest outbreak (26%). The EGP region, in general, is more prone to floods and droughts, and the experiences of farmers highlight the increasing frequency of extreme events. These events also impact soil fertility, as reported by 22% of respondents in Nepal. Regarding intra household perspectives, spouses generally agreed on the climate shocks (e.g. floods and erratic rainfall) experienced, though differences in perception were common for indirect and slow onset shocks such as extreme temperatures and river erosion.
Farmers in the EGP were also asked about their adaptation options in response to the climate shocks. Overall, many farmers responded to shocks such as floods and erratic rainfall by either leaving their land fallow or taking no action. Among the country specific adaptation strategies, 27% of respondents in Nepal left their land fallow, while 27.5% of respondents in Bangladesh mentioned using pesticides, reflecting the differing nature of the shocks experienced in each country.
Given the importance of social networks in building adaptative capacity of farmers, the impact of membership in various groups on adaptation strategies was also investigated. Both men and women with membership in farmers’ group, FPOs, or FPCs tended to leave their land fallow. However, women members of these groups, were more likely to provide supplemental irrigation (11%) compared to non-members (2.1%). Women in Self-Help Groups were also more likely to change cropping patters (6%) compared to non-members. Respondents in India (14.8%) drew down their savings, while farmers in Nepal often did nothing, highlighting the limited adaptation strategies available to cope with extreme events. Men were more likely to draw from their savings, while women reported reducing food consumption as an adaptation strategy.
Farmers adaptative capacity is largely determined by their livelihood assets, including human, natural, financial, physical, and social capital. Based on our findings, many households are leaving their land fallow and using pesticides in response to climate shocks. However, leaving land fallow may not be a sustainable adaptation strategy, as it directly impacts household food security. Changing cropping patterns, which was not a common strategy among the studied farmers, provides an opportunity for farmers for adopting climate resilient practices such as Conservation Agriculture (CA). CA is a resource efficient alternative to traditional farming, focusing on reducing tillage to preserve soil health - an issue already being faced by farmers in Nepal, while supporting farmers intensify to address food insecurity challenges. Similarly, the increasing incidence of pest outbreaks (e.g., Nepal and Bangladesh) has prompted farmers to use pesticides. However, integrated pest management (IPM) offers an effective strategy for managing pests and diseases through a combination of cultural, biological, and chemical methods while maintaining overall soil health.
Our study highlights country-specific trends in climate shocks, highlighting the urgent need to develop context-specific adaptation initiatives to address the unique challenges faced by both men and women farmers in the EGP region. Initiatives such as CA and IPM must be promoted by the government and development partners to support sustainable agricultural practices in a climate uncertain future, ensuring a food secure world.